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http://article.wn.com/view/2011/01/20/A_Look_at_Orexigen_s_Fair_Value_Today/
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Saturday, January 22, 2011
A Look at Orexigen?s Fair Value Today
>>See Part I, Eight Factors That May Impact Approval of Orexigen's Weight Loss Drug We estimate Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (Nasdaq: OREX) at fair value of $88/share if Contrave is moderately successful. Using a 60% probability of Contrave approval and 50% probability of minimal sales thereafter for any reason, we consider OREX fair value today near $25/share. As for the market, with over 34% of the U.S. population being obese (BMI>30) and another 32% overweight (BMI of 25–30), the numbers are astounding. Strictly on-label in technically obese patients, the 70 million patients theoretically represent a >$125 billion market (at $5/day). Reimbursement will be the largest...
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